Prediction Market Ads on Google in 2026: Certification, Five Excluded States and a Compliant Setup
Prediction market ads are one of the fastest-moving policy areas in Google Ads right now. Google allows them, but only for certified, licensed providers. On top of that, the list of excluded US states keeps growing. Connecticut became the fifth on October 7, 2026.
This guide explains who can run prediction market ads, which states are off-limits, and why affiliates are shut out. You will also find real market statistics, an illustrative case, a compliant campaign setup and an FAQ.
What Google means by prediction market ads
A prediction market lets users trade event contracts. Typically, each contract pays $1 if an outcome happens and $0 if it does not. For example, a “yes” contract priced at 40 cents implies a 40% chance of that outcome.
In practice, Google treats this category separately from sports betting and casino. It has its own Prediction Markets policy. Since October 2026, it also has a dedicated section inside the broader Gambling and games policy.
Who can run prediction market ads
In the United States, Google allows two types of advertisers. However, both need certification first.
- CFTC-authorized exchanges. The advertiser must be a Designated Contract Market (DCM) whose primary business is listing exchange-listed event contracts.
- NFA-authorized brokers. The advertiser must be a brokerage that offers access to those DCM products.
In short, Kalshi-style exchanges and registered brokers qualify. Everyone else does not.
What stays prohibited
Certification does not open everything. In fact, Google still bans several related products and business models.
- Binary options and other fixed-return financial contracts.
- Games of chance and lotteries dressed up as event contracts.
- Signal and tips sites, including affiliate and broker review sites.
The last point matters most for media buyers. For instance, a review site that ranks prediction platforms cannot run these ads, even with perfect compliance copy.
The five excluded states: a timeline of prediction market ads restrictions
Google approves prediction market ads for the US, but not for the whole country. In each case, the restriction followed state-level regulatory action. Here is the sequence, based on Google’s policy change log and PPC Land reporting.
| Date (2026) | Change |
|---|---|
| January 5 | Google posts the Prediction Markets policy |
| January 21 | Policy takes effect; Nevada is excluded from day one |
| June 2 | Ohio added to the excluded list |
| July 13 | Michigan and New York added |
| September 10 | Connecticut regulator sends cease-and-desist letters to nine companies |
| October 7 | Connecticut excluded, effective the same day |
| October 14 | Prediction markets get a dedicated section in the Gambling and games policy |
Notice the Connecticut entry. Specifically, Google announced it and enforced it on the same day, according to its policy update notice. There was no grace period.
Moreover, the main policy page lagged behind. PPC Land noted that on October 11 it still did not list Connecticut. So do not rely on one page. Instead, check the change log as well.
Why the list will probably grow
Several state regulators argue that sports event contracts amount to sports betting. Pew Research Center reports that some regulators have made exactly this argument. As a result, every new state action can trigger another Google exclusion.
For this reason, treat the excluded list as dynamic. Then build your account so you can add a state exclusion in minutes, not days.
Prediction market ads by the numbers
The demand behind this category is real. Moreover, all figures below come from public sources.
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi + Polymarket monthly volume, May 2026 | $26 billion | Pew Research Center |
| Same, July 2026 | $53 billion | Pew Research Center |
| Same, January 2026 | $17.5 billion | Pew Research Center |
| Same, August 2026 | $47 billion | Pew Research Center |
| Sports trading, June–July 2026 | over $58B on Kalshi, nearly $22B on Polymarket | Pew Research Center |
| US legal sportsbook handle, Q1 2026 | about $40 billion | Pew Research Center |
| Polymarket US share of Polymarket volume | 4% (Jan) to 39% (Jul 2026) | Pew Research Center |
| US adults who traded in the past year | 10% | S&P Global Kagan Q3 2026 survey, via RG.org |
| Traders who traded sports contracts | 70% | S&P Global Kagan, via RG.org |
| Respondents who had never heard of prediction markets | 44% | S&P Global Kagan, via RG.org |
| Finance & Insurance Search benchmarks | CTR 8.33%, CPC $3.46, CVR 2.55%, CPL $83.93 | WordStream 2025 |
Two takeaways stand out. First, volume doubled in two months, driven by sports. Second, 44% of surveyed people had never heard of these markets. Therefore, search demand is still forming, and education-led ads have room to grow.
Certification: how to qualify for prediction market ads
Certification is the gate. Without it, every ad gets disapproved immediately. The process mirrors other regulated verticals. However, the documents differ.
Documents you will need
- Proof of CFTC designation as a DCM, or NFA registration as a broker.
- Legal entity details matching the advertiser verification profile.
- The exact domains and landing pages you plan to advertise.
- A list of target locations, since each location needs its own application.
Also, the name on your Google Ads payments profile should match the licensed entity. In fact, mismatches are a common reason for delays. We covered similar issues in our guide to financial services verification in the US and Canada.
The MCC revocation risk
Google’s stricter gambling certification rules, in force since March 23, 2026, include a manager account rule. If one account under an MCC breaks the policy, Google can revoke certification across linked accounts.
For agencies, this changes account structure. Above all, keep prediction market clients in a separate manager account. Our article on MCC operations explains how to isolate risk.
Political contracts need extra verification
Some exchanges also list contracts on elections. However, if an ad mentions candidates or political outcomes, Google may treat it as election advertising. In that case, you also need election ads verification. The simple fix is to keep political markets out of ad copy altogether.
Geo setup: excluding the five states correctly
Geography is where many compliant advertisers still fail. Ads must not serve in Connecticut, Michigan, Nevada, New York or Ohio. Unfortunately, the default Google Ads location option can show ads to people outside your target.
Use presence, not interest
By default, Google targets people “in or regularly in” your locations, plus people showing interest in them. For regulated verticals, however, switch to “Presence” only. Otherwise, a user in Ohio searching about Texas could see your ad. Read our breakdown of presence vs interest targeting for details.
Add explicit exclusions
Target the United States, then exclude all five states as locations. Do this even though Google’s policy already blocks serving there. In other words, your settings should match the policy, not depend on it.
- Exclude Connecticut, Michigan, Nevada, New York and Ohio at the campaign level.
- Repeat the exclusions in every campaign. Google Ads Editor makes this a quick bulk edit.
- Audit all campaigns after every policy update.
Case study: an affiliate review site vs a licensed broker (illustrative)
The case below is illustrative. It is a composite built to show the policy logic, not a report from a named client. Treat any numbers as examples.
The affiliate. A media buying team built a “best prediction market apps” review site. It planned to run Search ads on keywords like “Kalshi review” and earn CPA payouts from platforms. The team launched one campaign and saw every ad disapproved within hours.
The reason was simple. Specifically, Google’s policy explicitly bans affiliate and broker review sites in this category. No amount of disclaimers or landing page changes could fix it. Meanwhile, the team risked account-level flags by resubmitting the same ads.
The pivot. Instead of fighting the policy, the team changed its role. It offered its creative and campaign management skills to an NFA-registered broker. As a result, the broker held certification and ran ads from its own verified account. The team then worked as the agency, not the advertiser.
The lesson. In this vertical, the advertiser of record must hold the license. Affiliates can still earn. However, they can only do so through services, content outside Google Ads, or partner programs.
A real setup: compliant prediction market ads on Search
Below, you will find a setup for a certified broker. The structure follows Google’s rules. However, the projected results are illustrative and based on WordStream’s finance benchmarks, not on live campaign data.
- Offer: account sign-up for a CFTC-regulated event contract platform, offered through an NFA-registered broker.
- Geo: United States, presence only, with explicit exclusions for CT, MI, NV, NY and OH.
- Certification: prediction markets certification approved for the US.
- Campaign type: Search, with exact and phrase match. Focus on educational and brand terms, for example “how prediction markets work” or “event contracts explained”.
- Bidding: Maximize Conversions for the first 30 conversions, then Target CPA.
- Creative: responsive search ads with factual copy. For example: “Trade Event Contracts on a CFTC-Regulated Exchange”, plus a risk disclaimer in the description.
- Landing page: license numbers, risk disclosures, state availability and a clear age requirement.
- Exclusions: no political candidate terms, no “bet” or “odds” wording, and no promises of returns.
- Budget: $300 per day for 30 days, or $9,000 total.
Projected results (illustrative)
| Metric | Assumption | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Spend | $300/day × 30 | $9,000 |
| Average CPC | WordStream finance benchmark | $3.46 |
| Clicks | $9,000 / $3.46 | about 2,600 |
| Conversion rate | WordStream finance benchmark | 2.55% |
| Sign-ups | 2,600 × 2.55% | about 66 |
| Cost per sign-up | $9,000 / 66 | about $136 |
Again, these numbers are a planning baseline, not a forecast. Real costs depend on competition, brand strength and the share of traffic you lose to excluded states. Still, the table helps you size a test budget before you commit.
Ad copy rules for prediction market ads
Even certified advertisers get disapprovals for wording. Therefore, write copy that describes a regulated financial product, not a game.
Words to avoid
- “Bet”, “wager”, “odds” and “jackpot”, which push the ad toward gambling.
- Guaranteed returns or “easy money” claims.
- Specific candidates or election outcomes.
- Comparisons with sportsbooks.
Formats to skip
The Gambling and games policy lists formats that cannot promote gambling content. These include Gmail ads, Shopping ads, reservation display and the YouTube Masthead. Google has not yet published a separate format list for prediction markets. So the safe approach is to start with Search and expand carefully.
If an ad still gets disapproved, use the Policy Manager workflow. Our guide to Policy Manager appeals covers how to appeal without triggering repeat-violation strikes.
Pre-launch checklist for prediction market ads
Before you spend a dollar, run through a short checklist. In our experience, most disapprovals come from small gaps rather than big violations.
- First, confirm that certification is approved for every target location.
- Next, check that the payments profile name matches the licensed entity.
- Then, set location options to presence only and add all five state exclusions.
- After that, review every headline for gambling words and return promises.
- Also, make sure the landing page shows license numbers and risk disclosures.
- Finally, subscribe to Google’s policy change log so you see new exclusions on day one.
Similarly, repeat the checklist after each policy update. Because Connecticut took effect the same day it was announced, a weekly review is the minimum. Otherwise, your ads may serve in a newly excluded state before you notice.
How this compares with crypto and other regulated niches
Prediction markets follow a pattern we have seen before. Google first opens a category to licensed players, then tightens it state by state or country by country. Crypto went through the same cycle, as our article on crypto ads in the UAE shows.
In the end, the common thread is clear. The license belongs to the advertiser, the account must match the license, and geo settings must match the policy. Teams that build these habits once can reuse them across every regulated vertical.
Where PPC Rebels fits in
Regulated verticals punish weak infrastructure. For example, a fresh account with a mismatched payments profile is a poor base for a certification request. Meanwhile, a single policy strike can affect linked accounts.
PPC Rebels provides agency Google Ads accounts for high-risk niches, with clean history and help on verification and billing. We do not sell shortcuts around certification. Instead, we help licensed advertisers and their agencies run stable accounts.
Looking for trackers, proxies or compliance tools? Browse our services directory. If you run a tool for media buyers, see our advertising options.
FAQ: prediction market ads on Google
Are prediction market ads allowed on Google Ads?
Yes, but only for certified advertisers. Specifically, in the US, that means a CFTC-authorized DCM or an NFA-authorized broker offering access to DCM products.
Which states block prediction market ads?
As of October 25, 2026, ads cannot serve in Connecticut, Michigan, Nevada, New York or Ohio. Most recently, Connecticut was added on October 7, 2026.
Can affiliates run prediction market ads?
No, because Google’s policy bans signal and tips sites, including affiliate and broker review sites. Instead, affiliates can work as agencies for licensed advertisers.
Do I need a separate application for each country?
Yes. In fact, Google requires a separate certification application for each location. For now, however, the US is the main approved market.
Can I mention elections in my ads?
You can, but you will likely need election ads verification on top of certification. As a result, most advertisers simply keep political contracts out of ad copy.
What happens if one account in my MCC breaks the rules?
Under the stricter gambling certification rules, Google can revoke certification across linked accounts. Therefore, keep this vertical in a separate manager account.
Bottom line
Overall, prediction market ads are a real opportunity, backed by billions in monthly volume. However, they belong only to licensed exchanges and brokers. Besides, the excluded state list changes without warning.
To win here, get certified first. Then match your geo settings to the policy. Finally, write copy that reads like finance, not gambling. If you need a stable agency account for a regulated vertical, talk to PPC Rebels.
